With each passing U.S. election, the share of ad budgets spent on digital channels — and especially Connected TV (CTV) — sets new records. This trend has already accelerated in 2024, with political spending on CTV expected to reach $1.3 billion this election cycle.¹
Given the influx of ad spend, some non-political advertisers are understandably uncertain about the potential impact on inventory availability and CPMs. Will campaigns and super PACs scoop up swaths of premium ad space in the second half of the year? Should marketers adjust their ad strategies to get ahead of the surge? And worst case, will some audiences simply be unreachable between now and Nov. 5, when Americans head to the polls?
For most advertisers, the simple answer to these questions is no.
While this will be a historically high ad spending year, with an estimated $12.3 billion in political ad investments,² non-political advertisers don’t need to worry. Below, we unpack the reasons why and offer guidance for the small number of buyers who may notice a change.
A drop in the bucket
First, those concerned about getting crowded out by political operators should keep in mind the sheer size of the ad market.
Political ad buys in 2024 will amount to just 3.1% of total U.S. media spend. While meaningful, election-related advertising is dwarfed by retail, CPG, auto, pharma, and other verticals, which will collectively buy $369 billion in media this year.³ Against this tsunami of ad spend, election-related CTV ad investments will be about 13% of total political ad spending and less than 0.5% of all ad expenditures this year.
Consider that in the last two election cycles, the highest average quarterly CPMs for political CTV ads didn’t even occur in Q4, when political spending was most active.⁴ And the average monthly CPM range for that entire year varied by just $2, a 12% delta.⁵ Not exactly disruptive.
Keep in mind also that most political budgets are allocated to non-CTV channels like linear TV, social, and radio. In fact, broadcast and cable TV still account for more than 75% of political ad spend so far in 2024, a sign that political ad spending on CTV still hasn’t caught up with viewer adoption.⁶
Takeaway: There is a sizable amount of inventory available for sophisticated buyers to reach their audiences. Political budgets alone are unlikely to sway inventory or pricing for most.
Demand is concentrated in swing states and linear TV
If you live in a battleground state like Arizona or Wisconsin, you already know what it’s like to be bombarded with campaign ads in the weeks leading up to Election Day. Elsewhere, the roar of political paid media may be relatively muted.
Three-fifths of political ad buys are state-level buys, and among presidential campaigns, 76% will be allocated to just six swing states.⁷ And as we discussed above, the majority of those budgets are expected to go to linear TV.
Even within the narrow field of states and voting districts where most of these ads will run, the ad blitz is highly focused on just one month, October, with some spillover into the first week of November. In fact, 65% of political media is typically bought between Labor Day and Election Day.⁸
Takeaway: If you have long campaign flights, broad audiences, or geographically distributed marketing plans, then Q3 and Q4 should be business as usual.
When to take action
Even though the influx of political ad spending will be small compared to the overall ad market and largely confined to a few swing states, you may want to monitor their bid strategies.
Do your customers primarily or exclusively reside in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and/or Wisconsin? If so, it could be tougher to reach them across all media during October and the first part of November. Here are a few measures you can take to stay in front of audiences:
- Prioritize audience over channel. Broaden your exposure to a variety of omnichannel strategies — such as audio, digital out-of-home, display, and online video ads. This can reduce your exposure to any fluctuations in CTV ads targeted to swing-state audiences.
- Align with news content. Aligning with news content likely will not negatively impact brand sentiment. And higher consumer engagement with news may create more reach opportunities for advertisers that choose to be present in these environments.
- Plan ahead. Consider increasing your bid caps to ensure your ads run on the maximum inventory available.
If you’re like most marketers, the chances are very slim that 2024 political campaigns will upend your CTV strategy. That said, please reach out to your account manager if you’d like to discuss ways to mitigate election-related price or inventory changes in the months to come.
Sources:
1. AdImpact, 2023-2024 Political Spending Projections
2. Insider Intelligence, “U.S. Total Political Ad Spending.”
3. Insider Intelligence | Emarketer forecast, “U.S. Digital Political Ad Spending by Category,” Jan. 2024.
4. The Trade Desk, Political CTV CPM analysis (proprietary data), FY 2022. Average CPM by quarter, average of all states.
5. The Trade Desk, Political CTV CPM analysis.
6. AdImpact, political lead generation tool, 2024. All advertisers, grand total % share of spend from Jan. 1, 2024 to Dec. 31, 2024. As of July 2, 2024.
7. AdImpact, political lead generation tool. All advertising spend by month, 2020 and 2022 cycles.
8. AdImpact, Political Projections Report, 2024.